It's Getting Crowded

The United Nations reported last fall that the global population had reached the seven billion mark and would continue to expand rapidly for decades.  Almost all of the increase can be attributed to sub-Saharan Africa, where women average more than five children and population boom far outstrips economic expansion. Experts estimate Malawi's population to be between fifteen and sixteen million people. HIV has fractured the distribution of the population with 45.1% of Malawians being under the age of 14.


In other parts of the developing world, such as Latin America and Asia, fertility rates have fallen drastically over the past few generations.  This transformation has been driven by a mix of educational and employment opportunities for women, access to contraception, urbanization and an evolving middle class.  While governments in sub-Saharan Africa have begun to act by reversing long-standing policies encouraging large families, the challenges are many and the problem daunting.  “‘Population is key,’ said Peter Ogunjuyibe, a demographer at Obafemi Awolowo University in Nigeria.  ‘If you don’t take care of population, schools can’t cope, hospitals can’t cope, there’s not enough housing - there’s nothing you can do to have economic development.’”

The most obvious example of the devastating effects of unchecked population growth is Nigeria - a nation that is projected in the next generation to have a population roughly the size of the present-day United States living in a country the size of Arizona and New Mexico combined.  In commercial hub of Lagos, living standards for most are deplorable with as many as 50 residents of one apartment block sharing the same sink, toilet, and kitchen facilities, although running water is a luxury they are rarely able to access.  At primary schools in the city, most classrooms average 100 students and the unemployment rate for people ages 15 to 24 is roughly 50%.  

To get the problem under control, the Nigerian government recently made contraceptives free; however, free birth control cannot undermine cultural beliefs that have been around for centuries.  “The number [of children] you have depends on your strength and capacity,” said a Nigerian laborer and father of four, who hopes to have at least two more children.  Many African cultures are patriarchal and even polygamist, leading the belief that the larger the family, the more prosperous and powerful.  Still, Executive Director of the United Nations Population Fund Babtunde Osotimehin says he is optimistic for a turnaround if contraception and women’s education are emphasized as solutions.  “We can see rapid changes, but that’s up in the air, because you have to be aggressive and constant.”  Experts are also hoping that the changing economics and lifestyles of middle-class Africans will help shift the emphasis from quantity to quality, holding up quality of life and financial gains in nations like Thailand as inspiration.  


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